THE Constraint Framework Brought to life
is now the locus classicus of market-relevant geopolitical analysis"
Chief Geopolitical Strategist
Not long ago, financial markets danced and central bankers called the tune. Today, investors confront a discordant world transformed by political paradigm shifts. In Geopolitical Alpha, investment strategist Marko Papic shares his framework for making sense of the new macro landscape.
By focusing on material constraints, investors can ignore the ephemeral and irrelevant, generating consistent alpha even in the face of extreme uncertainty.
Geopolitical Alpha is the guide to the future for anyone interested in geopolitics, economics, and finance.
John J. Mearsheimer
University of Chicago; author, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics
"Above all else, Marko Papic is an astute strategist who understands that geopolitics is more important than ever for investors..."
Lieutenant General (retd.) U.S. Army; Former White House National Security Adviser
"...Marko Papic provides a framework for thinking ahead of where we are and anticipating geostrategic events."
CIO, Key Square Group
"Geopolitical Alpha may do for macro-investing what Benjamin Graham's classic, Security Analysis, did for stock picking: provide a tool kit for generating excess returns by focusing on rigorous frameworks..."
Founder, Brevan Howard Asset Management
"Geopolitical Alpha is quite literally a bookend for a new paradigm in global markets. Geopolitics is now as relevant to investors as macroeconomics and central banking were in the last paradigm."
CEO, Future Fund of Australia
"To succeed in this new world, you need to understand geopolitics, and Marko is one of the best geopolitical strategists I know. If you want the best chance to achieve your return targets, read this book."
Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg
Chairman, Spitzberg Partners; former German Minister of Defense
"A thought-provoking geopolitical tour d'horizon that should be considered when we discuss the future of a world in disorder."
CIO, Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan
"Marko's approach is especially relevant at this juncture. The big shifts he cites are real and highly consequential for institutional investors like us. In fact, gaining the right perspective on them today might mean the difference between future success and failure."
Jeremy C. Stein
Professor of Economics, Harvard University
"Geopolitical Alpha is a fascinating, entertaining, and highly readable book. Marko Papic offers a distinctive and compelling take on the interplay between geopolitics and financial markets, with a clear intellectual framework to guide macro investment decisions."
United States Ambassador (retd.)
"Many ask who is a Zbigniew Brzezinski or Henry Kissinger of the young generation?... Welcome Marko Papic... He has written a remarkable book, Geopolitical Alpha, because he generally sees political risk analysts bungling it in terms of their analysis and strategic planning."
"Marko Papic proves a shrewd and humorous translator between the world of investing and policy-making in the pursuit of Geopolitical Alpha. For both traders looking to find the next trade or policymakers looking to make better policy, Geopolitical Alpha can help you to better understand how our world works...."
Author, More Money Than God
"From his very first chapter, Marko Papic tells us what not to do. 'Niccoló Machiavelli was wrong,' he declares boldly. 'Don't study the Prince. Study his constraints...' Papic proceeds to lay out what he calls his constraint-based framework for generating geopolitical alpha."
CIO, New Zealand Superannuation Fund
"Marko brings geopolitics to life through a very helpful practical framework presented with key insight and wit."
Marko is a Partner and Chief Strategist at Clocktower Group, an alternative investment asset management firm based in Santa Monica, California. He leads the firm’s Strategy Team, providing bespoke research to investors and partners on geopolitics, macroeconomics, and markets.
Prior to joining the firm, Marko founded BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy practice (GPS) in 2012, the financial industry’s first dedicated political analysis investment strategy. The GPS service generates geopolitical alpha by identifying gaps between the market’s political expectations and the firm’s forecasts. Marko was a Senior Vice President and the firm’s Chief Geopolitical Strategist.
Marko began his career as a Senior Analyst at Stratfor, a global intelligence agency where he contributed to the firm’s global geopolitical strategy as well as its analyst recruitment and training program. In his academic work, he helped create the Center for European Union Studies at the University of Texas at Austin. Marko holds an MA in Political Science from the University of Texas at Austin and an MA from the University of British Columbia.
Born in Belgrade, Serbia, he has lived in Iraq, Jordan, Switzerland, Canada, and the U.S. When he is not writing macro and geopolitical research, you can find him coaching his kids’ basketball games or balling with the locals on the mean streets of Santa Monica.
Reviews & Media
Chief Geopolitical Strategist, BCA Research
Director, Educational Events & Programs, CFA Institute
Sarah p. & Mike R.
What Goes Up
"... Many geopolitical analysts expect a bifurcated planet organized around U.S. and Chinese interests. Not so for Marko Papic, chief strategist of Clocktower Group, who sees a return to a 19th-century system in which nations act solely in their own interests, and allies become frenemies..."
The Pitfalls of trading geopolitical risk
"... But there are pitfalls for the unwary, as Marko Papic of Clocktower Group, an alternative-investment firm, argues in his book “Geopolitical Alpha”... As Mr Papic shows in his book, the pattern from the 1962 Cuban missile crisis onwards is for a short-term fall in America’s stockmarket to be followed by a rally over the following year, and often quite a strong one."
The Constraint-Framework in Action